Forex eBooks

Shop Class as Soulcraft

admin — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:07:08 +0000

Still, the best parts of the book are where Crawford talks about what working with the hands can do for a person’s mind and soul. When he describes the satisfaction of hearing the roar of a motorcycle leaving his shop, knowing that it arrived in the bed of a truck, it is clearly heartfelt. His desire to share that experience with others is palpable. Well, maybe that not exactly it. More the desire to say “there is another path” to the members of our society, in particular those about to shuffle off to college because that’s simple what one does after high school. To them I would say: read his book, and consider how your brain might be engaged by the thoughtful application of experience and labor in a trade. Decide if the potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars of college and years of debt really return enough value to your life to make college worthwhile.

For the rest of us, now past that decision point, consider Crawford’s thoughts on freedom and specialization. Maybe it _does_ make financial sense to contract out our projects and repairs, but does that necessarily make it wrong to try to fix things ourselves? Are we truly free if so much of the technology we depend on is beyond our ability to repair it? Perhaps Crawford has a point, that there is more to work than simple money and time. Maybe dirty hands will be good for our souls.

There are two problems. The first is the ‘Malcolm Gladwell problem’. Remember when our founding fathers published pamphlets? Let’s bring that back. This first appeared as an essay and probably should have stayed as one, it’s just not full length book material.

The other problem is that he presents a simple truth which is only half the story. To the author, there is hand-work, in which feedback is absolute therefore the work stays meaningful, and office work, in which achievement is unnecessary and an accent on procedure over substance has ruined everything. What he’s missing (and this is where some of the condescension toward craftsmanship Mr. Crawford bristles at so is actually based on a grain of truth) is that all these possibilities exist in both worlds, they’re just more obvious in the hands-on. We have all gotten back a car that’s still broken because a mechanic only followed the procedures in a shop manual he was ordered to follow by corporate hq. Gertrude Stein’s famous term was actually borrowed from a Paris car mechanic who found the younger mechanics went through the motions but didn’t understand what they were working on and so missed the nuances. He called the up-and-coming mechanics a ‘lost generation’. The point is that hand workers make the mistakes and work in the ways the author treats as unique to offices. Likewise, good managers cause nebulous organizations to work better. In, say, a school, it is much more difficult to diagnose a case of students who don’t learn what they could than it is to notice a light that doesn’t light. And you can bet the fix will take perception, subtlety, strength of character tempered with patience, tolerance for bureaucracy, etc. etc. yet people do this. It’s just harder, that’s why they fail a lot.

Fool’s Gold

admin — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:04:42 +0000

Without a full understanding of all the factors contributing to the crisis we find ourselves in, it would be tempting to find solutions that seem to eliminate the excesses of the past years only to sow the seeds for future problems. So-called “always fighting the last war”. A simplistic solution to the credit derivatives abuse would be to ban it. A simplistic solution to the failed U.S. auto industry would be to subsidize it with taxpayer funds. A simplistic solution to the housing problem would be to mitigate mortgage foreclosures through taxpayer subsidies (as if everybody who bought a home deserves to live in that home or be a homeowners in the first place).

Gillian Tett was nominated as British Business Journalist of the Year not for this book, but her regular writings in the Financial Times. Her writings in the FT are insightful and timely. This book only reinforces her reputation as one of the best journalists in the field.

Tett seems to cover just about every aspect of the recent crisis that an author can cover without getting into specific mathematical modeling errors (Hubbard argues this is a critical contributor but it would be hard to elaborate without alienating much of the audience). She covers AIG, Bear Sterns, Fannie Mae, the credit rating agencies and the Basel II accords. She mentions Gaussian copula model, Goldman Sachs and the actions of Alan Greenspan. The details of Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) and Value at Risk are included along with recent events like the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

I do not believe there is another single book that has this breadth of coverage combined with a logical picture of how they formed an avalanche of connected events. As of now, this is the single most important book on the topic, period.

The Myth of the Rational Market

admin — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 09:00:23 +0000

The mathematics discussed in the book is not terribly complicated but the reader is given no formulas, no graphs, no applications of the quantitative theories. Yes, everyone knows what normal distribution looks like but the power laws discussed deserve a chart. Mandelbrot’s fractal theories need a diagram. Fox would also support his argument more strongly if he included the formulas which were eventually altered by the behavioralists. Without these, the reader is forced to blindly trust what Fox is telling him.

Despite these minor criticisms, the book is definitely worth reading. I am guessing that the title attracts many readers who hope financial-economics moves beyond the Chicago School efficient-markets framework. If this is what readers want, I recommend Beinhocker’s “The Origin of Wealth.” If you want a quick tour of academic financial thought, read Fox.

Saying that people are irrational and the market is irrational is of course now all the rage. But, if you think you can romp your way to financial security by taming your animal spirits and feeding off the market’s irrationality, I assure you, and Justin Fox assures you, that such is not the case. “While behaviorists and other critics have poked a lot of holes in the edifice of rational market finance, they haven’t been willing to abandon that edifice.” (p. 301). The reason is that the edifice is usually correct, although it can experience spectacular failures. The problem is that we don’t know when it will experience these failures. We do know, or at least I strongly believe, that the failures are due to herd behavior of investors, which undermines the applicability of the normal statistical distribution, the mainstay of traditional financial theory.

The theory that financial markets are rational is called the Efficient Markets theory. It has two parts. The first is that unless the investor has some inside information not available to other investors, he cannot tell if stock prices are too low, too high, or just right. This means that on average you can’t gain by using a general theory that says when stocks are over- or under-valued. The evidence in favor of this theory is overwhelming. If your stockbroker tells you he can pick winners, run as fast as you can. Indeed, the best policy is simply to invest in low-overhead mutual funds, and look VERY closely at the overhead. You’ll do very well that way over the long haul. Trust me.

Riches Among the Ruins

admin — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 09:38:36 +0000

I was intrigued from the title considering the times we’re living in, and I zipped through this well-written, humorous, and interesting book. It reads like an international adventure and is great for someone who is curious about how the world used to work when developing countries teetered near bankruptcy in the 70’s and 80’s, all told from an entrepreneur’s eyes with self-deprecating humility. Especially good book for someone who wants inspiration on starting their own business in the worst of times…

Part exciting adventure thriller, part financial advice, this book reads like an Indiana Jones or Ian Fleming story. Smith takes us through his shenanigans in often war-torn perilous developing countries, where he tried (sometimes successfully and sometimes unsuccessfully) to forge a new financial instrument. Today’s huge emerging market industry was shaped by economic frontmen like Smith, and likewise, our nation’s woes could utilize the hard lessons learned in the debt-ridden countries where Smith spent the past 30 years doing business.

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Making Sense of the Dollar

admin — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 09:33:53 +0000

In order to frame its message, the book uses a provocative format: it challenges a handful of forex myths, peeling back the layers of concepts frequently taken for granted as the common wisdom. For example, at the heart of the arguments, one particular chapter is bound to command attention. Is the demise of the dollar, and its threatened standing as the world’s reserve currency an inevitability, as so many dollar bears have predicted in recent years? Chandler’s response is a resounding no, citing, “the unique characteristics of America, such as its political stability, the depth and breath of its US Treasury markets, and its status as a superpower.” He goes on to describe the dollar’s other key attributes, such as its role as an invoicing currency for trade, and as a denominator of commodities.

Chandler takes his own role as a educator seriously. He rises above every temptation to retreat into jargon, and consequently provides a pleasurable read, with stimulating arguments and refreshing clarity. Over the past twelve months, many investors and savers, rich and poor alike, have felt buffeted by economic currents and financial shenanigans they barely grasped. They have lost faith in both banking institutions and policy makers. A book like this pefforms a timely function. It sheds some light at a juncture when investors most need a helping hand, and teaches intellectual responsibility for understanding how the world works.

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Trading For Dummies

admin — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:52:04 +0000

The book is well-written, with the not-too-serious yet informative style that hallmarks a good “Dummies” book. The organisation is top notch, and the authors re-iterate tactics they have previously covered when doing so provides a good learning example. There is a limited amount of technical analysis, with the primary focus on patterns (breakout and continuation) and simple indicators–moving averages, MACD, relative strength, e.g.

As with most “Dummies” books, you are not by any means an expert on the topic when you finish. However, I believe the reader, having paid close attention, will have a good grasp of the concepts he or she will need to trade, and that this book provides a good introduction and foundation for further research in the field.

I give the book 5 stars for well accomplishing the authors’ stated purpose, but caution that, if you are looking for a book on short-term trading, you could be disappointed. That having been said, I think it makes a fine base for further reading into such trading. Your mileage may vary.

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The Daily Trading Coach

admin — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:36:40 +0000

Here are some of the gems of wisdom you will find in this book:
“…your losing trade is never a total loss as long as you embrace it and learn from it.”
“When we’re most frustrated, but also most overconfident, we’re likely to make our worst decisions and violate our trading principles.”
“..confidence comes from self-mastery.”
“A good day is one in which we follow sound trading practices, from skilled execution to prudent risk management.”
“Your focus becomes one of trading well, not one of making money.”
“To best focus on any single performance, it helps to be diversified among performances.”
“Positive thinking is not necessarily optimistic thinking, it is constructive thought.”
“…good risk adjusted returns are better for the psyche than extreme patterns of returns. It’s not how much you make, but how much you make per unit of risk taken that will keep you in or out of the performance zone.”
“Focus on your best trading and you begin the process of extinguishing your worst practices.”

This book has really improved my trading, by really teaching me to think correctly. It also reinforced my risk management strategies and showed me the importance of learning and growing. If you are serious about becoming a trader this book is a must have, it will show you how to build up the correct psychology to persevere in the markets long enough to win consistently. This is a must have for every trader’s library.

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The Market Guys’ Five Points for Trading Success

admin — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:27:13 +0000

The Market Guys come through on their promise to Keep It Super Simple. They demystify trading stocks. The biggest benefit I have taken away so far is to incorporate their advice on managing my risk by making sure I don’t expose more than 1% of my trading account on any one trade by using stop loss orders, managing my position size, and identifying support levels. Just minimizing my losses alone will tremendously increase my rate of return. Even when the market goes down and I lose some money, I love looking at a comparison of my account versus the indexes and seeing my account positions stop out and limit my loss, while the market continues to tank. This book and the other products the Market Guys come out with give me the confidence to wade into the water as a first time stock trader.

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Trend Trading for a Living

admin — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:08:36 +0000

“Trend Trading for a Living”, is quite exceptional amongst the available titles in that it does a much better job of making the subject matter digestible to people who aren’t already experts. I would recommend starting with an abject beginner’s book first, and then read this book to really clear up any confusion you may still have. While I have found nothing new in it (I haven’t seen anything so far that I haven’t seen before…), I do find that I’m actually UNDERSTANDING and RETAINING what I’m reading, which is new. It may be covering the same old material, but it’s done well and comprehensively, and doesn’t leave out little critical bits here and there (a frustrating habit of most market books) and does not presume a prior, deeper understanding on the part of your reader, and that makes all the difference. It is not enough for a writer to understand the material themselves, they must be able to teach it, and Dr. Carr does that very well, and very clearly.

And when Dr. Carr says he’s going step by step, he really is. He doesn’t casually mention some term or idea or indicator setting you’ve never heard of because you’re new, in some vague, unclear manner in passing, and then move on leaving you befuddled. He actually explains things to a useful level of detail. AND he responds if you write him.

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High Probability Trading Strategies

admin — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 14:45:43 +0000

I appreciate that the author isn’t trying to hard sell his software and newsletter. You can apply the ideas in the book without buying anything more from the author! That is an honest touch that is appreciated.

The style of the text can be somewhat annoying at times; it is a bit repetitive and has too many comments about not-so-good advisors out there somewhere. (No need for the author to point this out unless he wants to name the offenders.) It would have been good if the author told the reader how this book compares to his earlier book “Dynamic Trading”. My take is that the current book introduces the two time-frame momentum and streamlines the other information on Elliott and Fibonacci, but it would have been useful to get this information from the author. Is the previous book superceded in his mind or does it still have value?

All positive reviewers (13 of them at the time of writing) have only reviewed this book and nothing else. Clearly the author has a fan club. Irrespective, I can really recommend this book.

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