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Hide in Plain Sight

For the rest of us, now past that decision point, consider Crawford’s thoughts on freedom and specialization. Maybe it _does_ make financial sense to contract out our projects and repairs, but does that necessarily make it wrong to try to fix things ourselves? Are we truly free if so much of the technology we depend on is beyond our ability to repair it? Perhaps Crawford has a point, that there is more to work than simple money and time. Maybe dirty hands will be good for our souls.

There are two problems. The first is the ‘Malcolm Gladwell problem’. Remember when our founding fathers published pamphlets? Let’s bring that back. This first appeared as an essay and probably should have stayed as one, it’s just not full length book material.

The other problem is that he presents a simple truth which is only half the story. To the author, there is hand-work, in which feedback is absolute therefore the work stays meaningful, and office work, in which achievement is unnecessary and an accent on procedure over substance has ruined everything. What he’s missing (and this is where some of the condescension toward craftsmanship Mr. Crawford bristles at so is actually based on a grain of truth) is that all these possibilities exist in both worlds, they’re just more obvious in the hands-on. We have all gotten back a car that’s still broken because a mechanic only followed the procedures in a shop manual he was ordered to follow by corporate hq. Gertrude Stein’s famous term was actually borrowed from a Paris car mechanic who found the younger mechanics went through the motions but didn’t understand what they were working on and so missed the nuances. He called the up-and-coming mechanics a ‘lost generation’. The point is that hand workers make the mistakes and work in the ways the author treats as unique to offices. Likewise, good managers cause nebulous organizations to work better. In, say, a school, it is much more difficult to diagnose a case of students who don’t learn what they could than it is to notice a light that doesn’t light. And you can bet the fix will take perception, subtlety, strength of character tempered with patience, tolerance for bureaucracy, etc. etc. yet people do this. It’s just harder, that’s why they fail a lot.

Gillian Tett was nominated as British Business Journalist of the Year not for this book, but her regular writings in the Financial Times. Her writings in the FT are insightful and timely. This book only reinforces her reputation as one of the best journalists in the field.

Tett seems to cover just about every aspect of the recent crisis that an author can cover without getting into specific mathematical modeling errors (Hubbard argues this is a critical contributor but it would be hard to elaborate without alienating much of the audience). She covers AIG, Bear Sterns, Fannie Mae, the credit rating agencies and the Basel II accords. She mentions Gaussian copula model, Goldman Sachs and the actions of Alan Greenspan. The details of Structured Investment Vehicles (SIV) and Value at Risk are included along with recent events like the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

I do not believe there is another single book that has this breadth of coverage combined with a logical picture of how they formed an avalanche of connected events. As of now, this is the single most important book on the topic, period.

Despite these minor criticisms, the book is definitely worth reading. I am guessing that the title attracts many readers who hope financial-economics moves beyond the Chicago School efficient-markets framework. If this is what readers want, I recommend Beinhocker’s “The Origin of Wealth.” If you want a quick tour of academic financial thought, read Fox.

Saying that people are irrational and the market is irrational is of course now all the rage. But, if you think you can romp your way to financial security by taming your animal spirits and feeding off the market’s irrationality, I assure you, and Justin Fox assures you, that such is not the case. “While behaviorists and other critics have poked a lot of holes in the edifice of rational market finance, they haven’t been willing to abandon that edifice.” (p. 301). The reason is that the edifice is usually correct, although it can experience spectacular failures. The problem is that we don’t know when it will experience these failures. We do know, or at least I strongly believe, that the failures are due to herd behavior of investors, which undermines the applicability of the normal statistical distribution, the mainstay of traditional financial theory.

The theory that financial markets are rational is called the Efficient Markets theory. It has two parts. The first is that unless the investor has some inside information not available to other investors, he cannot tell if stock prices are too low, too high, or just right. This means that on average you can’t gain by using a general theory that says when stocks are over- or under-valued. The evidence in favor of this theory is overwhelming. If your stockbroker tells you he can pick winners, run as fast as you can. Indeed, the best policy is simply to invest in low-overhead mutual funds, and look VERY closely at the overhead. You’ll do very well that way over the long haul. Trust me.

Part exciting adventure thriller, part financial advice, this book reads like an Indiana Jones or Ian Fleming story. Smith takes us through his shenanigans in often war-torn perilous developing countries, where he tried (sometimes successfully and sometimes unsuccessfully) to forge a new financial instrument. Today’s huge emerging market industry was shaped by economic frontmen like Smith, and likewise, our nation’s woes could utilize the hard lessons learned in the debt-ridden countries where Smith spent the past 30 years doing business.

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Chandler takes his own role as a educator seriously. He rises above every temptation to retreat into jargon, and consequently provides a pleasurable read, with stimulating arguments and refreshing clarity. Over the past twelve months, many investors and savers, rich and poor alike, have felt buffeted by economic currents and financial shenanigans they barely grasped. They have lost faith in both banking institutions and policy makers. A book like this pefforms a timely function. It sheds some light at a juncture when investors most need a helping hand, and teaches intellectual responsibility for understanding how the world works.

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